Looking for a pull back…

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  The ES ended the week by grinding its 4th day up in a row to top the week out at the 2007 area.  Our price action on the hourly chart has been a little wide and whippy and I've had a hard time drawing in minor Support (mS).  

ES 03062016 Hourly
ES 03062016 Hourly

After 4 days up in a row you have to be thinking "Sell", so I'm looking for a pull back to the 1970 level which is mS on our Daily chart.  This will be a great area to sell some put credit spreads this week...

ES 03062016 Daily
ES 03062016 Daily

The last three weeks in a row the ES has produced 3 green up bars, I'm expecting another green week, but I'd expect a narrow range green bar this week as price is coming into minor resistance levels.

ES 03062016 Weekly
ES 03062016 Weekly
Posted in ES Market update | Tagged | Comments Off on Looking for a pull back…

A narrow range day

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  As expected the price action in the ES formed a narrow range green bar yesterday finding mS at 1966 after making a new high of 1984.50.  Price has since ground higher late yesterday afternoon into this early morning topping out with a new high of 1987.75.  Our 1966 pivot area is now Major Support (MS) and the sideways price action has formed a new area of minor Support (mS) at the 1978 area.  For our uptrend to continue price will have to stay above the 1978 and head for our T1 area of 1991.  If price breaks below the 1978 level and stays above 1966 then price would be in a sideways trading range.  The break of the 1966 level would officially end the current uptrend move.  

ES 03032016 am
ES 03032016 am
Posted in ES Market update | Tagged | Comments Off on A narrow range day

What looks obvious now usually isn’t until later…

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  Yesterday I was looking for a continuation lower which just did not happen as the market just rocked the Bears as the Bulls took over taking out minor resistance mR 1956 and MR at 1969 to finally topping out at the 1985 level.  We have a new mS area at 1969 which is being challenged as I write this.  This level must hold for our possible new uptrend to continue on the 60 minute chart.

ES 03022016 mid day
Click on chart to enlarge ES 03022016 mid day

Interesting now is the conflict that we have between the Weekly and Monthly charts of the ES.  Yesterday price hit the 1981 area of mR for the first time and I'm expecting them to sell this area hard, but on the monthly chart price made it above last weeks high triggering a PBS (Pristine Buy Setup) at the rising 20 ma.  I believe if the buy setup fails on the monthly chart they're going to to sell this market hard, like in a panic! 

EW weekly 03022016
EW weekly 03022016

Here is the monthly...

ES monthly 03022016
ES monthly 03022016
Posted in ES Market update | Tagged | Comments Off on What looks obvious now usually isn’t until later…

Hourly Downtrend forming?

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  After a good selloff yesterday overnight the Europeans found a bottom at the 1920 area.  Currently we have 2 lower highs and if price finds a new low below the 1920 area then we would have confirmation of a new downtrend on the 60 minute chart.  The next target is all the way down to the 1886 area not shown on my chart below but I had mentioned this area in a prior post.  My guess is that they will probably break this 1920 area overnight screwing the day traders chance to take the elevator down to the 1886 area, we will see...

ES 03012016 am
ES 03012016 am
Posted in ES Market update | Tagged | Comments Off on Hourly Downtrend forming?

Stop and Reverse leads to a big 10 point play

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  As the market finally moved up out of the 1947 area as 11:15 am reversal time was nearing I felt it was safe to take the first 5 minute buy @ the r20ma only to watch it fail.  I took the play because we had clear air all the way up to the 1969 area but as price continued to look sluggish and stay below the 20ma as it rolled over price, I found my entry short at 1951.  It took a while for the play to get going lower but slowly I was able to move my stop down using pivots. Finally I got the 4 red bar drop I was looking for and I was moving my stop down bar by bar but I forgot to move my take profit order lower and on a thrust downward price hit my take profit order @ 1941. 10 points wow!  I'd still be in the play as the market is currently at 1938 and heading lower...   $354 profit after taking the loss on a single contract not bad as trading the ES is new for me.  Finally I'm starting to get the hang of things again with my directional trading as I watch my trading improve almost daily...  

5 min ES 02292016
Click on chart to enlarge 5 min ES 02292016
Posted in Market Trade | Tagged | Comments Off on Stop and Reverse leads to a big 10 point play

A weekend recovered…

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  My last post for my week in review and what's coming was erased when I attempted to add a new blog site for my other business.  Lucky I had Updraftplus installed on my blog site which sends me a copy of my blog site twice per day, so I only lost the last post.  Since it's Monday morning and the market is in what Marc Nicolas would say the "Danger Zone" I've done nothing but sit on my hands, so I'll re-review what was erased and go over last nights price action in the ES.

Friday the market sold off into the close taking out our new area of Major Support MS at the 1948 level on the hourly chart to end the week at 1941.24.  The key level of support is the 1940 level seen on the Daily chart.  I mentioned that if we can't stay above the 1940 level then I felt that we will retest the 1886 level.  If we can stay above the 1940 level the ES has a great trading range all the way up to the 2000 level before the ES would find some resistance.  Here is the ES hourly chart showing the move below our MS area of 1948...

ES hourly 02272016 1
ES hourly 02272016 1

The Daily chart ended the week with a red topping tail which looks bearish, you can also see the mR area up in the 2000 area...

ES Daily 02272016
ES Daily 02272016

Here is the weekly closing with a wide body spinner type bar, note the 1981 mR level, this is where the Bears will attempt to take over when price moves into this area.

ES weekly 02272016
ES weekly 02272016

Overnight, the ES continued its move lower to finally find Support at the 1927 level before moving back up to where we are currently trading at the 1947 level, back above our key 1940 area on the Daily chart.  Right now the market looks sideways from our 1969 high to our low of 1927.  Currently I'm just sitting on my hands waiting to see which way this market is going to go...

ES 02292016 am
ES 02292016 am

  

      

Posted in ES Market update | Tagged | Comments Off on A weekend recovered…

Consolidation and Breakout again…

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  Overnight the ES consolidated for 8 hours just above the 1948 level creating an area of MS then finally breaking out to the upside above yesterday's prior high of 1949.75 to hit a T1 target of 1969 and pulling back and finding mS at the 1956.45 level.  For this uptrend to continue, price should continue up above the 1969 level and head to our 1991 T2 target.  This is a large area to trade and will make for some great long trades today or Monday...

 
ES 02262016 AM
ES 02262016 AM
 
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Breakout!

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  After the ES retested the 1920 area of MS price rallied to the upside breaking out above the 1940 level to top the day at 1949.75 taking out prior resistance areas at 1943 and 1946.  I started to back ratio one of my CCS but I want to see if price will hold at the 1938 mS level on the next pull back before I make any more adjustments to my portfolio.  If the 1938 level holds, then I will know that we are moving higher for sure.  Although, the move up today was pretty convincing...

ES 02252016 PM
ES 02252016 PM
Posted in ES Market update | Tagged | Comments Off on Breakout!

Predictions…

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  Since my last post the ES could not stay above the 1940 area and as predicted price retested the 1897 level to make a new lower low of 1886.41 before rocketing upward all day on Wednesday nearly coming back to our 1940 area to end up at 1938.50.  Overnight we rolled over to find mS at the 1920.55 level and now have retested the high near our 1938.50 level for a 2nd time which now makes this level an area of MR.  If price retest the 1920 area again and fails to go lower then our price pattern on the ES will be sideways again...

ES 02252016 am
ES 02252016 am

      

Posted in ES Market update | Tagged | Comments Off on Predictions…

Sideways Market

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  The ES failed to get stay above the 1940 area and is currently trading at 1931.75.  If the ES cannot get above the 1940 area and stay above then we could be heading back down to the 1897 mS area, our last level I pivot on the Daily chart. On the hourly chart we are currently sideways...

ES 02232016 AM
ES 02232016 AM
ES Daily 02232016
ES Daily 02232016
Posted in ES Market update | Tagged | Comments Off on Sideways Market