After the ES retested the 1920 area of MS price rallied to the upside breaking out above the 1940 level to top the day at 1949.75 taking out prior resistance areas at 1943 and 1946. I started to back ratio one of my CCS but I want to see if price will hold at the 1938 mS level on the next pull back before I make any more adjustments to my portfolio. If the 1938 level holds, then I will know that we are moving higher for sure. Although, the move up today was pretty convincing...
Since my last post the ES could not stay above the 1940 area and as predicted price retested the 1897 level to make a new lower low of 1886.41 before rocketing upward all day on Wednesday nearly coming back to our 1940 area to end up at 1938.50. Overnight we rolled over to find mS at the 1920.55 level and now have retested the high near our 1938.50 level for a 2nd time which now makes this level an area of MR. If price retest the 1920 area again and fails to go lower then our price pattern on the ES will be sideways again...
The ES failed to get stay above the 1940 area and is currently trading at 1931.75. If the ES cannot get above the 1940 area and stay above then we could be heading back down to the 1897 mS area, our last level I pivot on the Daily chart. On the hourly chart we are currently sideways...
Very predictable as the hourly sell failed going into the close on Friday the Europeans took advantage early this morning and rode the ES all the way up to our MR area of 1940 on the daily chart. A 33 point move upward this morning after price retested the 1907.50 area. Now we are in a very narrow trading range and we will have to sit on our hands and wait to see if the market will go higher or will this 1940 area hold...?
An hourly sell triggered Friday afternoon but failed to continue lower as price rallied back up to again retest our area of MR at the 1912 area. Earlier in the morning this area was mR but after several touches our method tells us that this has now become MR. We will have to wait until early Monday morning to see if the Europeans will push price above this area or move price lower. Currently we are sideways on the hourly time frame...
Friday's daily bar did close red but with a long bottoming tail with the 20 ma hooking around just below the bar in an area of mS. Conflicting view is that the 50 ma is just overhead at MR and price will have a hard time moving through this area...
On our weekly chart we see that price did not do what I had expected at the end of last week but price actually gapped up at the open of the weekly and moved higher but has left a small wick at the top where sellers came in. The 1941 area of MR may be retested this week...
Yesterday, the ES managed to work it's way through the 1916 area of MS finally bouncing to run back up to a first lower high of 1922 before rolling over breaking down past the 1916 area and is currently at the 1903 area. One more lower high with a lower low would confirm our new downtrend on the hourly chart. I've adjusted the 1916 line now mR to 1912 and our 1922 area is MR, I mention this because all of you PTT'ers know by definition that you can only have minor Resistance (mR) in a downtrend so I'm kind'a ahead of myself here just a little bit...
It appears that price has found MR at the 1932 area so now we are ping pong between the 1932 and the 1916 areas. My guess is that price will finally move above the 1932 area and price will hit our resistance area from the daily chart at 1940.50. If we continue to go up today, this will be day 5 and you must be thinking "Sell"...
Price in the ES has just continued higher hitting our T1 area 1915 and our T2 area of 1922. Currently price is consolidating near the 1922 area and price looks like it wants to test our next target of 1939. A pull back to the 1897 area would be a gift but I don't think the bulls are going to get the chance...
Price continued to our T1 and moved past our T2 areas to set a new high at 1892.50. Our new mS area at 1877 is being tested for the 2nd time, if price can go higher from here, the ES should challenge the 1892.50 area. If price moves back down to the 1872 area of MS and does not hold then our new uptrend on the 60 minute chart will be over for now...
And they do it! Friday's price action came to me as no surprise as I watched the ES sell off for the first 30 minutes, hit mS at 10 am reversal time and rally. I should have been all over this but for some reason I got distracted and never entered the play. Dumb! All I had to do is drill down to the 1 minute chart and find an early entry and I would have been in the play until the close. If you trade with more than a 1 lot, you might have kept a runner on over the weekend. I would not be surprised to see the ES hit the 1877 level early Monday morning during the European session, even though we are on Holiday Monday here in the US. I won't be surprised to wake up Tuesday with a gap up in the SPY. Friday's setup was so perfect with a retest of mS, at reversal time, at the R20ma, beautiful Void above, wow!
Now for next week, the daily price action should bounce off the 1879 level and head lower if the downtrend is going to continue on the daily chart. If price continues past the 1879 level to close above then our downtrend would be over for now and the threat of continued selling would be over for now. A break and close above the 1942 level would end the downtrend on the daily chart...
Now on the Weekly chart of the ES, price put in another nice bottoming tail bar that could spell the end to the downtrend on the daily chart, but I'm expecting another red bar next week and a retest of the 1804 level...
