The ES moved above MR the 1876 level overnight and is currently at 1888. My first target is 1907 where I'll be looking to trade a CCS or a PDS depending on the volatility. We should see price get to the 1907 area sometime today, if price retraces back to the 1876 level, I'll look to take the ES long directionally to my target overhead.
I was right this morning about our sideways market but I had to draw in the 1835.75 area of Major Support MS raising it from 1804. Like I said this morning, the longer we go sideways, the bets are that we will continue lower. I shorted the high of the day in the ES with 1 contract and I was up about $750 at one point but moved my stop down and I finally covered my short with a nice $460 bucks. Again, I'm waiting for the 1908 price retracement to sell a CCS or PCS depending on the volatility at this time in the SPY. FYI - I'm charting the ES but taking my trades on the SPY...
Click on chart to enlarge ES 01212016 Close
I took Tuesday off after the holiday and made it a great ski getaway weekend and I'm finally back in the saddle. I was net net short going into the weekend and my portfolio did rather well while I was away. Currently overnight, price action in the ES has gone sideways with price retesting the 1875 area and bouncing lower. Our low area of MS is at 1804. Expect ping pong between the 1875 and 1804 level with a bias to the downside the longer price continues to go sideways.
Trading the ES, I'd short the tops vs buying the bottoms so as the market opened today it would have been a good time to look for a short back down to the 1804 level. Below is the Daily chart where I'm looking to sell a Call Credit Spread CCS when price retest the 1908 area of mS, this is the area the market should retrace to and then roll over to head lower...
Well I did not stick around on Friday long after noon as the market put in a new low at 1849. We have a new mR area at 1871 which might have to be adjusted higher when the next pivot forms which should be in the resistance areas that I also noted on my chart below. I'm looking for price to make a lower high pivot confirming the mR area and head lower with the first target of 1849 which should be taken out by trending price action. If price moves to the 1849 area and does not move through it or bounces off of this area, then price would confirm a sideways pattern. The next target is a long way away at 1813, so if the 1849 level does not hold, then lookout below. Monday's a Holiday so my next post won't be until Tuesday sometime, stay safe...
The 1894 minor support area failed to push the ES higher on our first pull back overnight on our failed new uptrend. Currently we are back down at Major Support where price looks like it wants to hit our lower targets of 1852 and even lower to 1813. It just feels like there is unfinished business for the ES lower...
After retesting Major support this morning at 1894 the ES took off like a rocket breaking out above its prior pivot high at 1894. If we are in a new uptrend, price should retrace back down near the 1894 level where I'll be looking to get long with the hopes of reaching our 1946 target area...
I've adjusted our numbers from overnight, I have mR in the ES at 1898 and MS at 1874. For our trend to continue price would need to move below the 1874 and our 1898 level would become MR. A move above the 1898 level would end the downtrend but a bounce off of 1898 would be our 2nd touch which would confirm a sideways move in the market.
No sooner than the market opened, ES started to test the mS area at 1931 with in the first hour of trading this area started to break and it was all over, the shorts came in and they sold it off hard taking out MS and another support area at 1892 before closing near the low of 1878. I'm not exactly sure where to put the mR line now but I believe it should be at 1896, this will be the area that sellers should come back in to continue the new downtrend lower. I'm going with the 1896 area for now but I may have to adjust it depending on price action. I have the next lower target at 1852 and the next one is way down to 1813. I'm not sure if we will hit these lower targets, but the market seems to have further business to do down at these lower levels...
Click on chart to enlarge...
Lite news day with crude posting numbers at 10:30 EST. The ES has managed to confirm our new 60 minute uptrend with price finding mS at the 1931 area. Targets can be clearly seen at 1965 T1 and a T2 at 1991. Even though we have a trend, price action looks drunk or lethargic but I won't be surprised if price takes off this afternoon...
Click on chart to enlarge...
As far as trading, I've got my Delta's net net long and I bought a 195/193 Call debit spread (CDS) yesterday. Not that exciting yet, but I'm in the right direction...
Interesting day and boring at the same time trading the ES today. Price finally broke above the 1929 area but rolled over hard finally finding mS at the 1905 level. Price since has moved on up with the first target stop at the prior high, the 1940 area. Price should move through this area if the trend change is real, maybe overnight with the next long target of 1965 and a much larger price target of 1991.
Click on chart to enlarge...
