Weekend update for the QQQ and TraderHank’s stock picks for Monday, July 8th 2013

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The QQQ Triggered a weekly buy last week with a long target of 75.00.  I’m not sure if we get there this week but I’m sure we will come close.  There is always the chance that we come up short and begin to form a M top pattern on the weekly, we will see what happens in the coming weeks.  

Weekly chart of the QQQ
Weekly chart of the QQQ Click on chart to enlarge

For Monday, on a neutral open or a gap up in the QQQ, I’d look to play the first 5 minute pull back long above the 72.45 area with a target to the 73.80 area.  If we happen to gap down to the 72.30 area I’d be looking to play the next higher low around a reversal time 10 am or 10:30 am with the market.  If we happen to gap below the 72.24 area, this would end the 5 minute uptrend and I would look to short the first 5 minute sell in the QQQ preferably at or near a reversal time with a lower target of 72.00 area.  My bias is long due to the weekly buy that triggered last week so any pull back into the major support area of 72.30 would be buy-able.    

5 min QQQ07062013
5 min QQQ07062013 Click on chart to enlarge

TraderHank’s stock picks for Monday

Longs:

ALL – Pivot 1 continuation

WFC – Daily buy continuation

X – Daily buy watch

Shorts:

STI – Daily Climatic watch 

  

Posted in Daily Analysis, TraderHank's Stock Picks | Comments Off on Weekend update for the QQQ and TraderHank’s stock picks for Monday, July 8th 2013

TraderHank’s QQQ play of the day…

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The QQQ opened neutral @ 72.76 a .01 cent from yesterdays close.  Price sold off the first 5 minutes into 9:35 reversal time, then rallied into 10 am reversal time but price could not break yesterday's high of 72.92.  Since we were into minor resistance and I had a really small list of stocks to play, I felt that I should be looking for a short to enter once the market ended its 5 minute uptrend.  The market drifted lower into 10:30 just below its 20 ma on the 5 minute chart but above its 40 ma which is an area called the Pristine Buy Zone.  I had decided that the Q's was my best bet for a day hold short so finally at 10:35 am reaction time the Q's failed on it's 5 minute buy in the PBZ area so I shorted just below a small narrow range green bar that had formed.  My stop was the high of the day which was .19 cents away.  Price moved down rather nicely into 11 am and then started to move sideways.  My initial target was @ .08 so I just held my entire lot going into lunch as I went for my walk.  While I was away, Price did a head fake and broke the low @ 11:45 am and popped back to rally into 12:35 pm when price just rolled back over now at the declining 40 ma.  The Q's continued lower into 1:00 pm and pivoted off the 200 ma on the 5 minute chart.  Price basically pulled back two 5 minute bars before heading lower breaking to new lows at 72.17 by 2:00 pm.  I was just getting back from my walk at this time and I thought I was in good shape to see my target at .08 when prices started to rally hard up into 3:20 pm making an M top pattern below our 12:35 high.  I held into the close as price started to break down again but the 200 ma held price on the 5 minute chart as I sold into the close at .27 cents.  A 2 "R" isk unit play to end a respectable week of trading.

QQQ06142013
QQQ06142013

     

Posted in Daily Analysis, Market Trade | Comments Off on TraderHank’s QQQ play of the day…

QQQ update and TraderHank’s play of the day in TOL

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The QQQ opened near the close from yesterday @ 71.75, an area of major support, and hit the low of the day within the first 5 minutes @ 71.55.  Then at 9:35 reversal time price started its climb upward making the first higher high by 10 am and a 2nd higher high by 10:30 confirming our new 5 minute uptrend.  We had another trend day but to the upside unlike yesterday's sell off.  Every and all pull backs to the rising 20 ma on the 5 minute chart were bought.  The market rallied into the close setting the high of the day @ 72.92 and closing nearby @ 72.75.

qqq06132013
qqq06132013

My play of the day I found doing my 9:45 am wide range bar scan.  TOL had a textbook 9:45 wide range green bar to the upside.  My attempted first entry was foiled by my platform which went down just as I hit the bid.  By the time my platform came up TOL had popped more than .30 cents, wow!  So since I had no other longs on my list and the market was already into major support area, I felt it was best for me to wait for a pull back and enter the trade with TOL.  Soon TOL came back into my original buy area, since my first target was .30 cents and my longer target was .50 cents away, I used the low of the day as my stop hoping that I might be able to move up my stop and add more shares to my trade once TOL started to trend.  The lower stop worked here as TOL rolled over my entry area and went lower, normally I would have been stopped out, but I felt that the market had no where to go but up and TOL was overall bullish.  Price finally corrected itself and moved on up to take out my first target area of .40 cents where I sold 1/2 of my share lot.  I decided to keep my stop at the low of the day since TOL was trading wildly and may need the extra room.  To me the obvious target was HOSS (200 ma on the 15 minute chart)  which was near .65 cents.  I took off on my usually daily walk to come back and find that TOL hit my target 🙂  I could have taken the next setup, but I had already decided that I was done for the day as TOL continued to rock its way into the clouds above...

TOL06132013
TOL06132013
Posted in 9:45 Wide Range Bar Plays, Daily Analysis | Comments Off on QQQ update and TraderHank’s play of the day in TOL

QQQ closing update and TraderHank’s play of the day in HPQ

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The QQQ gaped up to 73.13 just above the prior 15 minute pivot breaking the prior downtrend but only to see price head lower as the Q's set the high for the day within the first 5 minutes of trading @ 73.14.  The Q's set the mornings low @ 72.51 by 10:15 am but price had also move past the lower pivot set yesterday confirming a continuation in our down trend.  Price rallied into 10:30 and triggered the first 5 minute sell setup at the declining 20 ma, then it was all downhill from here.  Price sold off hard into 11 am then took a 30 minute break as price moved sideways into 11:30 am when price broke down again setting the lunch time low @ 12:35 pm of 71.99.  Price rallied into 1:10 pm just getting above it's 20 ma on the 5 minute chart but got stuck below the 40 ma and priced rolled back over continuing lower.  The QQQ set the low of the day of 71.74 @ 3:30 on this trend day lower and closed near the lows of the day @ 71.78.

QQQ06122013
QQQ06122013

My play of the day started as a 5 minute buy in HPQ which I found during my 9:45 wide range bar scan.  HPQ was not a perfect 9:45 bar because it had gaped up and not traded up, but the bar was "Solid" green and price action was really bullish as the market moved into major support near morning reversal time.  My entry was standard but price soon faulted a bit and slide tighter into the rising 20 ma.  I held on as price popped back up confirming my 5 minute buy in HPQ.  The green 5 minute confirming bar was taken out over the next 5 minutes as price just crumbled as did the entire market.  As price took out my stop I decided that HPQ was headed lower, had a nice void, and shorting the stock after seeing my play fail twice hardly could be a loser, so I flipped my play short and held on for the ride.  My target was .87 which I could see support @ .84.  Price moved down nicely, then accelerated after the market started to move lower as well.  My price was hit and I sold out of my entire lot with a 2 "R" gain even after making up the lost "R" on the losing side of the trade.  Then price action set up a 123 pattern or GBI (green bar ignored) were there was an opportunity for a measured move lower.  Were always taught that the 2nd move could be longer than the first move so I re-entered the play just below the small green bar.  Price started to go a bit sideways then started to drift lower as I started to offer to cover shares almost immediately as price moved into profitable territory.  Has price moved down into a flurry, I had covered about 1/2 of my shares and placed a break even stop on my last half of shares.  This was smart to move my stop to a break even since I'm really shorting a powerful, bullish stock, which was confirmed as price finally did recover ending my play lower.

HPQ06122013
HPQ06122013

  

Posted in 9:45 Wide Range Bar Plays, Daily Analysis | Comments Off on QQQ closing update and TraderHank’s play of the day in HPQ

6-10-2013 Not a losing trading week since early April…

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Patience and self discipline are the two ingredients that a master trader must have to stay profitable.  I'm sure that most traders know that, it sounds easy enough, but when it comes down to it, It's not human like.  My search for patience and self control/discipline has lead me to believe that one has to make these qualities a habit, like going to the gym 5 days a week as I do.  5 days a week at the gym has been extremely difficult for me until I made it a habit, now I don't miss or if I do miss a day, I make it up.  With trading, profitable trading must become a habit.  A profitable trading habit overcomes our human nature to forego being patient and or loss control of our self discipline, ex. not taking your stop loss when price hits.  

Recently I've made two decisions that have taken my trading to new highs, the first was to make it to the gym 5 days per week, the 2nd was walk 3 miles daily during lunch time on Wall Street.  Going to the gym and walking daily have become habits which has caused me to focus and trade just the mornings from 9:30 am - 11:15 am.  Since I've been out walking I've taken no late lunch time trades and over time I've just decided that If I could not make a profit by 11:15 am, my chances are worse as the day progresses, so I almost never take an afternoon trade anymore.  My results?  I've been profitable every week since the start of April.  I'm close to becoming profitable daily which is just around the corner as I can see my trading improving.  

My last revelation that I'd like to share at this time is that I've realized that good trading days and bad trading days tend to trend together.  For example, if Monday is a rough losing day, expect Tuesday to be the same, and if Tuesday is tough, expect more of the same on Wednesday.  I've been using this new revelation to control my aggressiveness while picking my trading plays with outstanding results.  I keep expecting more of the same from the market until otherwise noted.  Last week I had a tough Tuesday and was down a "Risk" unit.  Wednesday I expected a tough trading day which was confirmed with a scratch day.  I figured Thursday would be more of the same, and it was, I had another scratch day even thou I felt I was more aggressive taking plays.  Going into Friday, I had my guard up expecting more of the same when I found myself a beautiful 2 risk unit trade that moved my P & L into the black for the week. How many times have you seen a trader have a losing day and attempt to make the loss up the next day and then have a worse losing day.  This would happen to me all the time but since I realized what was going on I've been using this knowledge with excellent results.       

Posted in Diary | Comments Off on 6-10-2013 Not a losing trading week since early April…

QQQ morning update and TraderHank’s play of the day in CELG

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The Q's gaped up this morning to open @ 72.70 then drifted lower for the first 15 minutes setting what looks to be the low of the day @ 72.52.  At 9:50 am near our 10 o'clock reversal time, price broke out above the 72.70 area and never looked back.  Basically the market did a delayed "gap N go" this morning and is currently trading at its highs @ 73.28.

QQQ06072013
QQQ06072013

I've been a bit rusty this week after my long weekend in SoCal and I was still slightly negative for the week.  I just needed a good trade to push my P & L into positive territory.  Wednesday, Thursday were both scratch days and very frustrating.  A few years ago I would have been down so far with my P & L, I would have not had a chance to recover.  Finding good plays has been difficult since Gap season is over and I'm stuck with finding momentum plays by 9:35 am and or my 9:45 am scan for wide range bars.  Today I found CELG on my 9:45 am scan with a beautiful sold green wide range bar.  The only problem was that price had gaped at the open by $1.50 which usually would eliminate the stock from my consideration but I had nothing else that looked as good, no shorts and no longs.  I went ahead and started to watch CELG as price continued to be bullish and continued to move on up.  I noticed that every pull back to the 20 ma on the 1 minute chart was bought so I waited patiently as we were heading into 10:30 reversal time.  I finally got my entry setup at 10:22 am in CELG, with the markets continued bullishness, I entered my long trade in CELG.  I had a .19 cent stop and I was looking for a .44 cent target or a 2 risk unit trade.  Price action moved on up painlessly and I sold my entire lot at .40 cents.  I did not stick around for more, not this week, I was solidly profitable for the week and it's Friday...  Time to chill!

CELG06072013
CELG06072013

          

Posted in 9:45 Wide Range Bar Plays, Daily Analysis | Comments Off on QQQ morning update and TraderHank’s play of the day in CELG

QQQ update and TraderHank’s play of the morning in MSFT

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Large gap up in the Q’s this morning almost to the highs of May 22nd, price opened at 74.27 and price has continued to move on up until 10:30 where we might have set the high for the day in the QQQ @ 74.54.  Currently price is trading @ 74.43 and looks to go lower…

qqq05282013
qqq05282013

My trade of the morning was in MSFT which I found on my daily buy watch list.  MSFT triggered its daily buy by gaping up this morning with the market.  I usually do not play stocks on my daily list until later, usually after 10 am but I had a poor gap list this morning so my plan say’s to look for a momentum style play which MSFT fit the bill.  The first minute bar in MSFT put in a nice bottoming tail after gaping which caught my eye, then, price nicely consolidated for the next 4 minutes, I was all over this play as Price moved on up out of the consolidation.  Price never looked back as MSFT hit two targets and I was looking to add back some shares and reduce my stop, but my fat finger got in the way and I sold out of my last remaining shares by mistake 🙁  This time the fat finger saved a little of the profits as Microsoft ended up rolling over and I would have given up even more of my profits.  A little over an “R+” profit, painless, sweet on this Tuesday morning after a long Memorial Day weekend.   

msft05282013
msft05282013
Posted in Daily Analysis, Daily plays | Comments Off on QQQ update and TraderHank’s play of the morning in MSFT

QQQ update and TraderHank’s play of the day in ESRX

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The Q’s had a large gap down this morning to open @ 72.96 and rallied for the first 5 minutes before rolling over.  Price sold off until 10 am reversal time setting the low for the day @ 72.76  an area of Major Support.  Price rallied until 11:05 setting the morning high @ 73.16 before rolling over and selling off til 11:30 am when price pivoted making the first higher low and a potential start to a new 5 minute uptrend.  Price confirmed the new uptrend at 11:40 making another higher high of 73.20, from there price went sideways over lunch then pulled back @ 12:30 pm only to pivot and head higher.  Price continued to go higher until 2:15 where price started to pull back finally breaking the uptrend by taking out a prior pivot.  At 3:40 price started upward again breaking out above the 2:15 high set @ 73.39 and powering upward into the close.  Price closed the day near the new high of the day @ 73.50.

QQQ05242013
QQQ05242013

My play of the day was in ESRX which I found off my daily list as price had broken out 2 days ago and I was looking for continuation of the bullish price action.  At 10 am reversal time the market looked like it wanted to go long and ESRX was the strongest stock that I had on my list but it was still trading under it’s 20 ma on the 5 minute chart.  A red topping type tail formed on the 5 minute chart @ the declining 20 ma which looked like price was going to head lower.  The next bar took out the low and snapped back green, and then closed green.  There was my pivot I entry, my “money bar”, I was in long over the high with a 30 cent target in mind to make my day.  Price moved up bullishly 4 bars, then pulled back 3-5 minute bars and headed higher taking out my target price and continuing.  Since I had made my week, and we were headed into lunch time, and the Holiday weekend fastly approaching, I left my offer out at .81 cents to sell my entire lot.  On a normal day, I would have stuck around and got piggish, anyway, 2 R’s in the bank, full share size taken to target, and weekly goal made, time to party!      

esrx05242013
esrx05242013
Posted in Daily Analysis, Daily plays | Comments Off on QQQ update and TraderHank’s play of the day in ESRX

QQQ update and TraderHank’s Gap play in HPQ

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After yesterday's hard sell off in the market, we gaped down from yesterday's close to open @ 72.97 and rallied for the first 5 minutes before heading lower testing the first 5 minute low of 72.83 before heading higher at 10 am reversal time.  Price rallied into 10:30 setting the high at 73.50 and currently the Q's are beginning to break out above this area confirming a 5 minute uptrend in the market.  

qqq05232013
qqq05232013

My play of the morning was in HPQ which I found this morning as a Tier II bullish gap which requires a proper entry to play.  HPQ started to sell off at the opening and put in a small bottoming tail on the 1 minute chart.  It's hard to take this entry because we have not established an uptrend yet, so I waited.  When the 5 minute high was taken out confirming the uptrend, the next pull back would be buy able and my entry came at 9:40 am as price displayed a beautiful bottoming tail on the 1 minute chart.  I entered above .38 cents and price moved up nicely.  I sold 1/2 above the .50 cent area (.57) and again at .71 cents.  I intended to hold my last few shares for my longer target of 24.00 but I became impatient with the price action and sold my final shares.  I guess I'm going to have to get a stop watch and start the watch the moment that I want to take my money off the table.  I'll wait for 60 seconds and then decide to sell, in the case of HPQ I would have been rewarded with my final few shares as I watched HPQ take off to my target. Trading is never perfect, but you can make improvements overtime and the biggest thing that I've had to realize is to be happy with any winning trade and just say "NEXT" and go find another great trade.  I made 2 risk units on my trade in HPQ... Next!   

HPQ05232013
HPQ05232013
Posted in Daily Analysis, Gap plays | Comments Off on QQQ update and TraderHank’s Gap play in HPQ

QQQ update and TraderHank’s play of the day in ORCL

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The Q’s gaped up slightly this morning @ 74.36 and rallied hard into 10:30 am reversal time setting the high of the day @ 74.95.  Then the market sold off into 11:00 am coming within .01 cent of the low of the day before bouncing in this area of major support.  The QQQ rallied into 11:45 am but could not make a higher high and rolled back lower after hitting a lower high of 74.76.  Price faded into 12:35 pm and again bounced only to make another lower high confirming the break of the uptrend and price headed lower again at 1:00 pm finally  breaking through the low of the day set during the first 5 minutes of the markets open.  Price sold off hard into 2:00 pm and again at 3:00 pm and with the topping tail left behind on the Daily chart it looks like we may have hit the high for 2013 in the QQQ @ 74.95.

QQQ05222013
QQQ05222013

My play of the day was in ORCL which I found on my 9:45 wide range bar scan.  ORCL just had a beautiful wide range red bar and a text book 15 minute chart.  This is exactly what I look for while scanning:  Wide range bar, very little if any tails, and notice that the 20 MA has curled and is moving in the direction of the wide range bar.  My entry came on a 5 minute sell setup that triggered at 10:30 am reversal time with the market as the Q’s headed lower.  I covered 1/2 of my shares at the .50 cent area but with my fat fingers, I shorted more shares by mistake, OUCH!  I just covered the rest and ended the play with about 2 risk units of profit.  Not a bad fat finger day…

ORCL 052213
ORCL 052213

        

Posted in 9:45 Wide Range Bar Plays, Daily Analysis | Comments Off on QQQ update and TraderHank’s play of the day in ORCL