I have my fishing net out on a trade in EURJPY at the 107.95 level seeking a 40 pip profit with a 40 pip stop. I’ve got my net of 8 total lots above spread apart by 15 pips, hopefully something will hit overnight, but so far, price actions seems to want to roll over. Here is my chart for my setup in EURJPY…
The Q’s opened neutral this morning and sold off immediately moving below the 65.50 area and triggering the hourly sell in the Market. If you took my advise from last nights post and shorted the break down in the market or took the first 5 minute sell, you were handsomely reward as the market sold off hard finally putting in the low of the day by 11 am @ 64.55. I had a target of 64.20 area which we may still get there but we currently are retracing to the 65.29 area and looking to see if the market will trigger a 15 minute sell over lunch. My first play was a long in FSLR at 10 am reversal time. FSLR was on my daily watch list because of yesterdays price action (wide range bar). This morning FSLR gap down below the 20 ma and rocketed upward then setup a nice 5 minute buy at reversal time. This is a key time for the overall market in which I was expecting a bounce in the Q’s. The Q’s did rally a bit setting up a the first sell in the market. This small rally pushed FSLR to new highs and my first target was hit. Since the market rolled over as it triggered a new 5 minute sell, I was not willing to stick around long after my target was hit in FSLR. Here is the chart for my play in FSLR…
On last nights edition of Fast Money they were recommending a short of AUDUSD at the 1.0500 area. This caused me a little concern because I was already short with 1 of possible 8 lots at the 1.048 area. Usually if CNBC mentions a trade, they seem to go in the opposite direction but I’m happy to say that AUDUSD rolled over nicely to my take profit area 🙂
AUDUSD 05122012
The QQQ continued its sell off today making a new low of 65.20 by 11 am when price finally recovered and closed at 65.58. For tomorrow if price moves immediately below the 65.50 area which would trigger the hourly sell in the Q’s, I’d look to short the next 5 minute sell in the market with a first target back down to the 65.20 area and a longer, potential target of 64.22. If we happen to gap up or trade up past the 65.75 area I would look to buy the first 5 or 15 minute buy setup in the market at 10 or 10:30 am.
Longs:
APOL – Daily wide range bar
FSLR – Daily wide range bar
HPQ – Daily Bear Trap
KLAC – Daily wide range bar
WMT – Daily bear trap
Shorts:
LVS – Gap continuation
STI – Break Down
TOL – Gap n Crap continuation
I found TGT on my 9:45 am wide range bar scan and I was eager to enter the play short. Price action just never gave an entry on the initial drop so I had to wait for a pull back to the declining 20 ma. I ignored the first sell setup at the 8 ma because TGT dropped like a mini climatic and the first sell setup usually fails. I waited until price had hit the 20 ma on the 5 minute chart. TGT bounce hard off the 20 ma triggering the short. I took the play feeling confident that I would be helped out by the weak price action in the Q’s, unfortunately, this was not the case. My entry bar closed as a bottoming tail and price action flurried upward taking out my stop, ouch! If you have been counting, this is my 3rd stop out today, I’m done for the day, I just don’t have my mojo today. It happens, the key here is to stop trading! A few years ago, I would have blown up the account with no chance of a profitable week. Tomorrow is a new day and I’ll be profitable by weeks end!
My next play came at 10:30 reversal time where the Q’s were at HOSS on the 15 minute chart and I was expecting a bounce. I was stalking TOL all morning for a long play because of its bullish gap this morning. I liked the setup because it triggered at reversal time and price was down into support. Price action in the Q’s was weak and no help with my play in TOL as price finally stopped my play on the next 15 minute bar. This could be a great late day breakout, but it needs time to heal now. Here is the chart for my play in TOL.
The Q’s opened neutral this morning setting the high for the morning during the first 5 minutes and has continued the sell off with every pull back to the 20 ma being sold off. The high is 65.73 and the current low is 65.20 with the Q’s looking a bit sideways here going into lunch. My first play was a short in AKAM which was on my Daily list because AKAM had triggered a daily sell pattern yesterday. My entry was the 2nd sell setup at the declining 20ma. The play had a lot going for it with a topping tail bar at the declining 20 ma, a new lower low, COG formed, nice void lower. With all of these things going, AKAM still managed to take out my stop. To make matters worse, AKAM rolled back over and dropped like a rock. It’s been one of those days!
Usually, it’s best to dance with the girl who brought you, after having a nice short in RIG this morning, I thought a little late day break out was in order, so I took a nice bottoming tail, with COG @ support, long as a 15 minute buy triggered in RIG and the QQQ at the same time. We call this a market play or market alignment in which the Q’s were due to rally anyway; but quickly failed causing havoc with my trade in RIG. I let RIG roll over too far that I decided to hold on looking for a higher low. This play had huge risk to reward with a huge void above which makes the play much more desirable and harder to want to exit. I decided that I would take 1/3 of my shares off when price got near .42 again, which it soon did. Soon after the whole market came tumbling lower which forced me out of my trade with a very small gain. What a day in the market!
The hardest thing for a trader to learn is discipline, well I admit I had none on my play in AXP today and I deserved the stop out. I knew the pattern that I was looking for but I entered early thinking the play was going to go without Mr. TraderHank. I show my losers in the hopes that by embarrassing myself, I’ll hopefully never do this again. Here is my embarrassing chart for my long play in AXP.
The QQQ gaped up nicely this morning clearing the highs from last Thursday and Friday and setting the high of the day by 9:40 am @ 66.37. From there, every pull back to the 20 ma has been sold basically a trend day lower. Our currently low is 65.64 which was put in at 3:15 pm. My first trade was RIG which had a nice bullish gap that looked a little novice since Thursday and Friday had put in green bars on the daily chart. Since price rallied for the first 5 minutes and the bar closed green with a topping tail, I decided to use my 5 minute gap sell strategy if the 5 minute low was taken out. As price action took out the low I entered the play short which made it to it’s first target at .50 cents where I covered 1/2 of my shares. Price looked lower but my first target bar on the 5 minute chart closed with a topping tail and the high was taken out, when I decided to cover the rest of my shares. This is a choice I make but I could leave the rest of the shares on with the original stop. If I had, I would have been handsomely reward as RIG sold off lower with the Q’s the rest of the day…
