Stock picks and QQQ update for Thursday, October 11th, 2012

Posted on October 10, 2012 by TraderHank
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Shorts:

BRCM – Break down continuation pattern

KLAC – Break down continuation pattern

LVS – Break down continuation pattern

NTAP – Pivot I continuation pattern

VLO – Break down, wide range bar continuation pattern

XLNX – Gap continuation pattern

Longs:  None

The QQQ opened up neutral this morning and rallied up to yesterday afternoons top of the base at 67.42 area setting the high in at 10:30 reversal time.  The market basically sold off starting at 11:50 lunch and hit bottom at during the last 15 minute before closing.  I would expect a repeat of today for tomorrow, which if we open neutral and break the low of 66.80 one could look to take the first 5 minute or 15 minute sell setup that occurs in the QQQ.  First lower target areas for the market will be 66.35 and the 2nd lower target will be the 65.40 area.  If for some reason we gap up or rally upward, look to play the hourly sell that occurs at or near 10 or 10:30 am near the 67.74 price area.  My bias is short, stay short!  If the market puts in a higher high on the 5 minute chart sometime tomorrow, one could take the next buy setup that occurs long.

QQQ 2
QQQ 2

     

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QQQ afternoon update and TraderHank’s trade in the QQQ

Posted on October 10, 2012 by TraderHank
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Yes, at the start of lunch, the Q’s put in a large red bar on the 5 minute chart starting the lunch time move lower.  I entered on the break down setting my stop above the last pivot area on the 5 minute chart.  This was a bit early, the 4 bar pull back into the declining 20 ma was really the correct entry short.  Ahhh, these are the items I need to work on.  Anyway, my stop held and the Q’s started it’s slow and painful move downward.  I sold 1/3 of my shares at at 5 minute bar by bar break, then I sold another 1/3rd at the flurry down (see chart).  My last 1/3rd was sold when the market was hit with a bad tick and a large spike hit my stop and I was taken out.  Actually, I saw the print go buy so it really was not a bad tick.  Having a spike take you out is the hazards of using hard stops, but If you are like me, I have a tendency of not taking my stops if I don’t use them.  I have found this a sure way of solving my “not wanting to take a stop syndrome” problem and thus I’ve become a profitable trader as a result of using hard stops.  Now the Q’s has popped a bit on Beige Book news that was just released, we will see what happens from here…  Here is my chart on my play in the QQQ.

qqq play
qqq play
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Market update and TraderHank’s play in XLNX

Posted on October 10, 2012 by TraderHank
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The market opened neutral this morning and sold off breaking yesterday’s low by a few penny’s.  Currently we are in a sideways trend and I’ll be looking for a break down below the whole number of 67.00.  I’ll be looking for the first 5 minute sell setup after.  If the market breaks up and rallies I’ll be looking for the hourly sell setup.  At this point I’m SOH(set on hands).  Tough morning for many, especially if you over traded and had no patience.  My first and only play thus far was with XLNX which I found on my gap down list.  I liked XLNX because it gaped below a prior pivot area and set a new low.  My entry came after a green topping tail bar on the 2 minute chart.  The play moved down nicely at first but price never reached my first target 32.25 and XLNX began to rally at 32.33.  I hung in the play until a COG (change of Guard) appeared on the 5 minute chart.  It was over for now, but I may retry later this afternoon on the 15 minute chart.  No harm done, basically a scratch trade.  Here is my chart for my play in XLNX…

XLNX
XLNX
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QQQ market analysis and stock picks for Wednesday, October 10th, 2012

Posted on October 9, 2012 by TraderHank
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Shorts:

BRCM – break down

COST – Daily sell triggered

HOG – Daily sell triggered

INTC – Gap continuation

Longs:  NONE

Today the Q’s gaped down at the open and sold off hard until 11:45 setting the low for the day.  Price action then went sideways within a range of 67.09 low and 67.53 for the high.  Tomorrow my bias is short, if the market gaps down below or trades below 67.09, I’d be looking to short the first 5 min sell setup.  If the market gaps up and rallies I’d be looking to take the hourly sell in the market once triggered at 10 or 10:30 reversal time near 67.73 at minor resistance.   Larger targets for the day in the QQQ will be 66.40 area of Major Support and the next potential target area would be 65.35.

QQQ 1
QQQ 1

   

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TraderHank’s play in APOL

Posted on October 9, 2012 by TraderHank
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My next play was in APOL which I found on my 9:45 wide range bar scan.  APOL looked a little Climatic which my method tells me to not take the first sell setup, but I had several things going for this trade.  The first thing was the pattern, This is Oliver Velez’s Gift play, the 2nd item was the market was starting to accelerate lower.  3rd I had a topping tail on the declining 20 ma on the 15 minute chart with a 200 ma overhead on the 5 minute chart.  I still had planned to take the 2nd sell but then, the way APOL popped, triggered the 5 minute sell and creating a larger red bar on the 5 minute chart told me that the professionals just sold.  I’ve seen this pattern over and over, and APOL would be set to go lower for sure.  Well, nothing is for sure, but it worked nicely and APOL rolled over with the market lower.  I had nice targets lower but I was forced out of the play with a 3/4 “R” profit when price action broke a higher pivot on the 2 minute chart.  Here is the chart for my play in APOL… 

 
APOL
APOL
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This morning in the QQQ

Posted on October 9, 2012 by TraderHank
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Happy Tuesday everyone, the market gaped lower this morning to Major Support and price action just continued through support lower.  There is no doubt that the daily uptrend in the Q’s is over!  We now could be in a sideways or downtrend, the downtrend would be confirmed with another higher low on the daily chart.  We are definitely in a downtrend now on the 60 minute chart.  My first play today was in Intel (INTC) which I found this morning on my gap scan.  INTC was gaping to a new low taking out a prior pivot low and had nothing in the way to go lower.  My entry came after a red wide range bar that INTC put in on the 2 minute chart.  I entered on a 2 minute low, which was a bit aggressive, but I was willing to place the stop at the high of the red WRB.  I felt that with my large stop, I could hang in on any retracement.  It was not until 10:45 that INTC broke down below it’s first 5 minute low of the day.  I did not get the drop that I had expected, but I ended the play with a little more then 1/2 “R” as the market was bottoming out.  Looking back on it now, I could have stayed in and made the price action take me out.  Since I had to stay with the play so long in the negative, I just did not want to give up the little that I had made this morning.  Giving up a little for a lot more is a traders struggle that will never end.  Here is my chart for my play in Intel (INTC) 

INTC
INTC

          

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TraderHank’s last trade for the morning in GILD

Posted on October 8, 2012 by TraderHank
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My final trade was a small .10 cent scalper trade in GILD.  I usually don’t take these trades but the setup was too good for me to not take the trade.  I’ve seen this pattern before many times and I know the trade was good for at least .10 cent pop and I expected the price to roll back over as it did.  I found GILD as one of my morning bullish gaping stocks, not a great gap, but it made the list for a play later.  I’ve been watching GILD all morning have bullish price action but with no follow through to the upside.  I finally found a 5 minute entry, but I knew that it would be good for only a .10 cent pop, so I pounded my entry with full share size with plans to unload 1/2 of my shares after the .10 cent pop.  As I expected, GILD rolled over quickly and I sold my entire lot.  Decent little scalp which has me even for the day.  I’ve got things setting up for the afternoon, hopefully something will push me over the top for the day.  Here is the chart for my scalp play in GILD….  

GILD
GILD
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TraderHank’s Trade in AMGN

Posted on October 8, 2012 by TraderHank
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My 3rd play of the day was at 10:45 as the Q’s were setting up another 5 minute sell in the market.  I shorted AMGN, which I found doing my 9:45 scan for wide range bars, on it’s first 5 minute sell.  Price action moved lower then AMGN lost it’s 5 minute bar by bar and price action continue higher causing me to cover everything.  It’s hard to stay with this since we were nearing a reversal time for the market at 11 am.  I immediately walked away from my screen only to come back and find that AMGN took out it’s 5 minute Green bar and continued lower.  If I would have seen this price action, I would have re entered the play.  O’ well, I’ll get it done next time!  Here is the chart for my play in AMGN…  

AMGN
AMGN
Posted in 9:45 Wide Range Bar Plays | Comments Off on TraderHank’s Trade in AMGN

TraderHank’s trade in VZ

Posted on October 8, 2012 by TraderHank
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My next trade was with the market triggering it’s 5 minute sell.  I took VZ on the 5 minute sell trigger short.  I found VZ while doing my 9:45 wide range bar scan which showed a beautiful big red bar.  The entry was near the 8 ma and I would have preferred the 20 ma but since I was in alignment with the market 5 minute sell I entered the play short.  Price action in VZ did not confirm the market sell and I soon exited the play with a tiny loss, basically a scratch trade.  I required that VZ move lower with the market, not sideways as it did putting in another topping tail finally at the declining 20 ma.  VZ did finally move lower and I decided to pass on re-entering the play.  Here is the chart on my play in VZ(Verizon)…

VZ
VZ

      

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Market update and my first trade in SLB

Posted on October 8, 2012 by TraderHank
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If you read my pre-market letter yesterday, it pretty much nailed the market.  The Q’s gaped below Friday’s low and sold off for the first 5 minutes then proceeded to put in the high at 10:00 triggering a 5 minute sell setup.  If you took the first 5 minute sell, you would have been rewarded handsomely.  My first play was in SLB which I found on my short Gap list before the market opened.  Not a Tier I gap but it was gaping below some Major Support area and had only one pivot area to take out and we would have been home free lower.  I was a bit aggressive taking the 1 minute low but if you have the play correct sometimes this is actually the best entry because the stock many times opens at the high of the day.  Price action looked great until the market decided to rally at 9:35 setting up the 5 minute sell in the market.  SLB just would not continue lower stopping me out of my play.  I’ll look to short SLB this afternoon on the 15 minute chart if it sets up just right.  Here is the chart on my play in SLB…

SLB
SLB

 

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