I had a text book 15 minute PSS that triggered in CVS today. It failed, but there are a few things that can be learned by this play. First the play triggered during lunch, 11:15am -1:50pm EST is the toughest time to trade. New inexperienced traders beware, and go to lunch. The 2nd problem was the hourly bar had just about 10 minutes to go and looked like it was going to close green after 3 red bars down with a bottoming tail, in an uptrend we would call this a COG. After a series of green or red bars and the bar finally closes in the opposite color, the law of momentum comes into play where by you should be expecting follow through 80% of the time. So in my case, the hourly chart looked like it was going to close green, therefore my short play was doomed to fail from the beginning. I had one overriding factor that caused me to take the play and that was the Q’s price action was back up into minor resistance and I felt that it would either sell off or go sideways, without harming my 15 minute sell in CVS. Well, I got my .10 cents in CVS and was able to get my play at a break even thinking that the play may really work out. Then CVS price action put in an igniting wide range bar taking out my stop and rocketing upward. Here is what the play looked like…
Q’s into resistance area, should not harm my short play in CVS…
Hourly chart with COG forming… Not a good time to go short….
15 minute PSS triggering at prior resistance… Red dot, my entry short, green dot my stop out…
After .10 cents in my direction, I slammed my stop to a break even and good thing as price just ripped upward…