QQQ market play for Tuesday, October 22, 2013 and TraderHank’s stock picks

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The Q’s ending the trading day in a tight trading range between  82.54 and 82.07 to close @ 82.31.  Price action broke the 5 minute uptrend finally near the end of the day but repaired itself over the last hour of trading.  For Tuesday, if we open neutral and trade higher or gap up, I’d look to take the first 5 minute buy that triggers near 10:30 am reversal time with a first target in the 82.53 area and longer targets @ 82.75 and 83.00. If we open and immediately move lower or gap below 82.05 I’d look to take the first sell that triggers near 10 am or 10:30 am reversal time with a low target of the 81.35 area. If we happen to stay above the 82.05 area (Major Support area), I’d look to take the 2nd higher low on the 2 minute chart long with the same long targets as above. 

QQQ Daily 10212013 homework
QQQ Daily 10212013 homework

QQQ hourly 10212013 homework
QQQ hourly 10212013 homework

 

QQQ 15 min 10212013 homework
QQQ 15 min 10212013 homework

Longs:  FWLT – 1234 watch Shorts:  ANF – Pivot I continuation 

Posted in TraderHank's Stock Picks | Comments Off on QQQ market play for Tuesday, October 22, 2013 and TraderHank’s stock picks

10/18/2013 – Why do perfectly looking 15 minute buy or sell setups fail?

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For years I’ve been frustrated on why a perfectly looking 15 minute buy setup would roll over and fail even with the rest of the market powering upward.  The setup could be picture perfect, with bottoming tail, at the rising 20 period moving average, at support or an area of 40/60 Fib retracement etc.  and the darn setup would fail.  I had to be missing something, I’ve been studying this for the last 5 years and really could not come up with anything solid or a trend to why my 15 minute buy/sell setups seem to fail more often than work.  

Then, I had my “aha moment”, I’m one of these types that my mind is always working on a solution to my problems even when I’m sleeping.  On the problem of my 15 minute buy setup failing, my mind has been working on this for a long while.  When I was going over my notes a couple of weeks ago,  I was looking over my IFT Market Laws, Market law #3 is Fibonacci’s law and I’ll quote what Oliver Velez has said many times during his training classes.  ”If you don’t have a 3-5 bar swing, don’t do a thing”, I always took this as a non-trending market with random candlesticks, and overlapping bars with no signs of any recognizable patterns or like most traders would call “CRAP” can’t recognizable a pattern.  Then it accrued to me that all of my 15 minute setups that seemed to fail were outside of this 3-5 bar range on the pull back.  I’d have 3-5 giant wide range green bars followed by 7 -9 or 10 red smaller bars on the pull back, even though the pull back would still be in the 40-60 fib retracement the 15 minute buy/sell pattern would usually fail.  I concluded that if the pull back is outside of the 3-5 bar range, the setup will most likely fail because in actuality price has a new trend in the opposite direction of the setup, which can be seen on the 5 minute chart or a lower time frame.  I’ve also concluded that there is, what I’d call, a time decay that is happening on the longer pullbacks, as we are taught in The Pristine Method, Price + Time = Void, the greater the time the larger the void and the more likely price will continue in the direction of the pull back causing any rallies in the opposite direction to fail..    Aha!  Since my discovery, I’ve been able to predict which 15 minute buys were going to fail with uncanny accuracy.  So remember “if it don’t have the 3-5 bar swing, don’t do a thing!”    

void
void

             Here are some examples from my stock list on Friday…

T 10202013
T 10202013
WAG 10202013
WAG 10202013
Posted in Diary | Comments Off on 10/18/2013 – Why do perfectly looking 15 minute buy or sell setups fail?

QQQ afternoon update and TraderHank’s gap play in XLNX

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The Q’s gaped down this morning temporarily ending the 5 minute uptrend but immediately set the low of the day @ 79.95.  Price rallied and confirmed the 5 minute uptrend by 10:55 am and continued over lunch to set the high of the day at 12:55 pm @ 80.78.  Price then faded over the rest of lunch until 2:15 reversal time as price began it’s grind upward towards the high.  Now @ 3:25 reversal time, price has just retested the high of the day but could not break above the 80.78 level.  

QQQ 5 minute chart 10172013
QQQ 5 minute chart 10172013

My play of the day came in XLNX which I found on my gap down list this morning as a beautiful Tier II gap with a huge void down below.  I liked the void so much, that I found myself entering a 1/3rd lot size on the low of the 1st 1 minute bar.  A very aggressive entry, but not really with the void.  Five minutes later, I was able to add my 2nd 1/3rd lot before price just ripped lower.  I sold some shares @ .70 then price started moving lower rapidly so I covered @ .61, .54 .29 and finally covered my last shares @ .36.  A nice 1 1/5 “R”s with only 2/3rds lot size in 13 minutes, faster than a fast food line at Jack in the Box…      

xlnx 10172013 II
xlnx 10172013 II
Posted in Gap plays | Comments Off on QQQ afternoon update and TraderHank’s gap play in XLNX

QQQ market play for Thursday, October 17th 2013 and TraderHank’s stock picks

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The Q's closed @ 80.39 after a nice gap up this morning continuing the 15 minute uptrend and officially confirming the 60 minute uptrend.  The Daily chart closed looking extremely bullish after today's engulfing green candle form a pattern known as a RBI (Red Bar Ignored).  This usually sets up, what is known by traders as, a measured move higher.  Take the previous low of 76.35 minus the top of yesterday's red candle of 80.11 which equals $3.76.  The measured move expected would be another $3.76 above today's low, so if we do the math it looks like 79.79 + 3.76 = 83.55 as the long target in the QQQ.  

For Thursday, I'm bullish after today's close so if we gap up, I'd be looking to take the first 5 minute buy that triggers above the 79.35 area.  If we happen to gap down below the 79.30 area, I'd take the first short that triggers in this same area with a target of the 78.25 area and a 2nd target of the 78.00 area.  If we happen to open neutral and go sideways, I'd look to take the breakout or breakdown that occurs at or near 10 am reversal time.  If we open neutral and rally, then take the first 5 or 15 minute buy that triggers near 10 am or 10:30 am reversal time.  If we happen to fade the open, I'd wait for Wednesday's high to be taken out before looking for a buy setup or I'd look to get short on a 5 minute buy failure.  Long targets, who knows?  Look at the whole numbers as possible places for resistance such as 80.50, 80.75 and the 81.00 dollar areas.  

Daily QQQ 10152013
Daily QQQ 10152013

           60 minute QQQ 10152013
60 minute QQQ 10152013

 

QQQ 15 minute chart 10152013
QQQ 15 minute chart 10152013

Longs: Shorts:

AIG - RBI NTAP - Gap continuation

ALL - RBI

C - Gap continuation

HOG - Breakout continuation

JNPR - Gap continuation

WAG - RBI

X - 123 Watch

Posted in TraderHank's Stock Picks | Comments Off on QQQ market play for Thursday, October 17th 2013 and TraderHank’s stock picks

Wednesday, October 16th, 2013 Market play for the QQQ and TraderHank’s stock picks

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After breaking out to new highs, the Q's ended the day with a topping tail bar on the 60 minute chart and ending the uptrend on the 5 minute chart.  Until the US Government is reopened expect wild movements in the market due to news, rumor, etc.  Be quick to take your profits and be nimble on looking for long trends, basically expect everything. For Wednesday if we open neutral and base sideways, I look to play the break out or break down after the pull back at or near 10 am or 10:30 am reversal time.  If we happen to gap up above the 80.25 area, I'd look to take the first 5 minute buy in the market.  We have clear space up above and price could run up, my first target would be the high of the day from a pull back, then bar by bar on the 5 minute chart.  If we happen to gap down above the 78.75 level, I'd look for the first 5 or 15 minute buy at 10 am reversal time with targets back up to the 80.20 area.  If we happen to gap below the 78.65 area and immediately sell off, I'd look to short the first 2 or 5 minute sell that triggers in this area with a low target of 77.75 and 76.50.

QQQ Daily 10152013
QQQ Daily 10152013

  15 minute QQQ 10152013
15 minute QQQ 10152013

60 min QQQ 10152013
60 min QQQ 10152013

Longs: Shorts:

X - WRB continuation  NTAP - Gap continuation

RIG - Daily sell watch

T - Daily sell triggered

XOM - Daily sell watch 

Posted in TraderHank's Stock Picks | Comments Off on Wednesday, October 16th, 2013 Market play for the QQQ and TraderHank’s stock picks

QQQ trading for Tuesday, October 15th, 2013 and TraderHank’s stock picks

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The Q's closed near the highs of the day @ 79.77 in a 5 and 15 minute uptrend.  We are at the very tip top on the hourly chart and we would have to go out to the quarterly chart before we could see any reference points to the left.  Currently we are 5 bars up on the hourly chart and I'd be looking for a pull back sometime  tomorrow. Honestly, I'd have to wait for an hourly pull back before going long at this point so if we gap up or down and stay above the 79.45 area, I'd be looking for the first buy that fails, near 10 am or 10:30 am reversal time, on the 5 minute chart to get short, your targets will be the 79.25 - 78.75 area.  If we happen to gap below the 79.45 area, I'd look to take the first sell setup that triggers at 10 am reversal time with the same lower targets.  If for some strange reason we gap below the 78.75 area I'd look to short the 5 minute low or wait for a 2 or 5 minute sell to trigger, your targets will be 77.75 and the gap fill of 77.25 then 76.30.  

Quarterly chart of the QQQ
Quarterly chart of the QQQ

  Daily homework QQQ 10142013
Daily homework QQQ 10142013

Hourly homework QQQ 10142013
Hourly homework QQQ 10142013

Longs: Shorts:  None

CTSH - 123 watch

GILD - RBI

Posted in TraderHank's Stock Picks | Comments Off on QQQ trading for Tuesday, October 15th, 2013 and TraderHank’s stock picks

QQQ update and TraderHank’s quick play in TEVA

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The Q's gaped down this morning to open the day @ 78.75 and set the low in the first 5 minutes of trading @ 78.68.  Price rallied into minor resistance and set the morning high @ 79.11 by 10 am.  Then price pulled back to retest this same area within a penny at 10:35 reversal time.  Since, we have broke the 2nd lower pivot high @ 78.89 which ended the uptrend on the 5 minute chart.  Currently we are trading @ 78.93 and we look a little sideways going into lunch.

QQQ 10142013 update
QQQ 10142013 update

My play of the morning came quick and easy which I found on my gap down list.  TEVA was gaping into a major support area and had a nice .75 cent void to the upside.  The first 5 minute bar closed as a neutral green narrow body bar, but if you zoom down to the 1 minute chart you will see the retest of the low and a very bullish pattern to the upside, so it was very easy for me to take the 5 minute high.  What happened next was completely unexpected, as I enter the play, I usually start entering my take profit targets on my trading platform.  In this case I was full lot size so I had offers out @ .65, .75 and .99.  Well, price suddenly shut up like a rocket taking 2/3rds of my offers @ .61 and .91 but fell short of my .99 offers.  Wow, a quick 2 "R"isk unit profit in a blink 🙂  A great way to start a week!

TEVA 10142013
TEVA 10142013

PS I have to apologize about  last nights homework post, I just realized that I did my analysis on ADBE and not the QQQ.  Good Grief, I must have had too much to drink on Saturday night.  The only good thing was the chart on ADBE was very similar to the QQQ. 

    

Posted in Gap plays | Comments Off on QQQ update and TraderHank’s quick play in TEVA

QQQ Friday’s closing update and TraderHank’s text book trade in ADBE

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The Q’s opened with a small gap down on Friday morning @  78.41 and immediately set the low of the day at 78.40 where price found minor support and started upward into 10:10 am reversal time.  Price then went sideways into 10:30 am and  triggered the first buy set up on the 5 minute chart.  Many traders were caught off guard when price rolled over causing the 5 minute buy to fail.  Price mysteriously recovered at 11:00 am, went sideways until 11:30 where price broke out and rallied over lunch time to set the high of the day @ 79.29 by 1:10 pm.  Price pulled in a bit to trigger another buy at 1:30 and Q’s rallied back up to the high of the day but was unable to set a new high.  By 2:15 pm reversal time the Q’s began to fade into the close with a nice pop in the last 10 minutes of the day to close @ 79.23

QQQ 10112013
QQQ 10112013

My play of the day came in ADBE which I found on my daily buy list.  ADBE gaped down like the market at the open and rallied hard back up filling it’s gap and leaving a nice solid 5 minute green wide range bar.  If price were to pull back here, I’d take the buy setup within this bar.  If price breaks the high, I’m in over the top which is exactly what happened.  I hit the ask @ .28 cents and held on as price rallied another 10 minutes.  I was able to sell 1/3rd @ .50 then price faded  triggering it’s first buy set up at 10:20 reversal time.  I add back some shares and brought my stop up as I watch price rally another 20 minutes where I sold another 1/3rd @ .65.  Price then when sideways for another 20 minutes before breaking out again where I sold another 1/3rd @ .95.  I tailed out of the play 25 minutes later on a failed buy setup but price corrected itself on the next bar and took off higher with the market into lunch.  I was still able to produce a nice 1 “R”isk unit trade to end a great trading week profitably…

ADBE 10112013
ADBE 10112013

  

Posted in Daily plays | Comments Off on QQQ Friday’s closing update and TraderHank’s text book trade in ADBE

Market play in the QQQ for Friday, October 11th, 2013 and TraderHank’s stock picks

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The Q's finished the day in a 5 minute uptrend into resistance but still managed to close way up from the open @ 78.61.  If the market opens neutral and rallies  above the 78.75 area or gaps above this area, I'd look to take the first 5 minute buy in this same area with a target of 79.25 and a second lower target @ 79.50.  If we happen to trade or gap below the 78.25 area and sell off, this would break the uptrend on the 5 minute chart and I 'd look to short the first 5 minute sell that triggers near 10 am or 10:30 am reversal time.  We still have some void to the upside and since the 2:00 pm-3:00 pm hourly bar took out the low of the prior hour, I'm expecting more price action to the upside.  These are some terrific times in the market for day Traders, make the most of it, follow your charts, have fun, and makes lots of money!     

QQQ Daily 10102013 homework
QQQ Daily 10102013 homework
QQQ hourly 10102013 homework
QQQ hourly 10102013 homework
QQQ 15 minute 10102013 homework
QQQ 15 minute 10102013 homework
QQQ 5 minute 2013 homework
QQQ 5 minute 2013 homework
Posted in TraderHank's Stock Picks | Comments Off on Market play in the QQQ for Friday, October 11th, 2013 and TraderHank’s stock picks

QQQ Closing update and TraderHank’s quick trade in GILD

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The Q's gaped up big this morning to open @ 77.81 and immediately set the low for the day @ 77.79.  Price powered upward into 10 am reversal time and set the high @ 78.01 then pulled back into 10:20 am reversal time triggering the first 5 minute buy. Price rallied into 10:50 setting a new high for the day @ 78.09 then price faded once again into 11:15 reversal time and triggered the 2nd 5 minute buy.  Again, price powered upward breaking out above the high of the day until 12:30 pm setting a new high @ 78.55.  Price again faded through the rest of lunch but @ 2:15 price started to grind upward again setting the final high of the day @ 78.79 by 3:10 pm.  Price faded slightly to close the day @ 78.52 with both the 5 and 15 minute time frames in an uptrend.

QQQ 10102013
QQQ 10102013

My only play of the day came in GILD which I found on my gap up list and I rated the gap as a Tier III gap which requires a proper setup to enter.  My entry came just after 9:35 reversal time when GILD pulled back nice on the 1 minute chart giving me a beautiful setup with narrow range bars, slight bottoming tail, a change of guard and a nice risk to reward.  I found myself entering the play long almost without thinking about it. Price took off quickly over .35 cents in 4 minutes, my real target was back at the high @ 62.80 but when you up so fast and so quick, it's a gift so I sold as a red bar was starting to penetrate the last prior green bar on the 1 minute chart.  A very fast 1 "R" trade that could have been played a 2nd time as well.

GILD 10102013
GILD 10102013

  

Posted in Gap plays | Comments Off on QQQ Closing update and TraderHank’s quick trade in GILD